Covid19, war and shrinking economy: portents of an uncertain future?

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India is teetering at the brink of a crisis unparalleled in its over 70 years of history as a republic. The Covid19 pandemic has thoroughly exposed the health systems in the country, in urban and rural areas. WHO warning has come true, ‘Don’t depend upon anyone, each one has to save oneself.’ The crisis along the LAC with China is worst since 1962. India is seeing its worst economic decline since 1996 when it started reporting quarterly numbers of GDP.

COVID19 PANDEMIC APPEARS TO HAVE BELIED THE ATTEMPTS AT belittling it by media and the policy formulators. On 5 September 2020, India crossed 41 lakhs confirmed cases. On 6 September 2020, it crossed 42 lakh confirmed cases.

Even though the USA will continue to be the country with the largest number of confirmed cases; India has emerged as the global hotspot of the pandemic; with the number of daily increases of positive cases being almost thrice that of the United States of America. The number of daily covid19 related deaths are at par with that of the USA.

The decline of the economy continues to be precipitous. In the last quarter, GDP shrank by 23.9%. That is the worst decline among all the major world economies that have announced GDP figures for the quarter, according to the latest tally from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It is also India’s worst decline since 1996 when it started reporting quarterly numbers.

DOES THIS GIVE YOU A SINKING FEELING? India has emerged as the global hotspot of the pandemic; with the number of daily increases of positive cases being almost thrice that of the United States of America. The number of daily covid19 related deaths are at par with that of the USA.

The fast-approaching rumble of war drums can be heard both at the LOC with Pakistan and the LAC with China. The Government of India appears to have mismanaged the triangular contest involving India-Pakistan-China.

Tensions along the LAC in Ladhak has been in the media spotlight, in spite of the over the top coverage of circumstances of Sushant Singh Rajput’s death. However, since late 2019 dailies from northeastern states have been reporting similar worrying developments from Arunachal.

With the Indo-Naga accord seemingly hitting a roadblock in these precipitous times, a serious tumult in the already fragile polity of the northeastern is inexorably emerging as a possibility.

It is a matter of regret that the light at the end of the tunnel is too distant to provide succour and hope.

The combined effect of all this will be negative for the professional classes and the poor. It is a matter of regret that the light at the end of the tunnel is too distant to provide succour and hope.

Cartoon Courtesy: Hedgeye

Kumar Sanjay SinghKumar Sanjay Singh is Associate Professor in the Department of History at the Swami Shraddhanand College, University of Delhi with specialisation in Mutations in Indian State formation post-1947, Extraordinary laws especially Internal Security Legislations and Human Rights with special focus on North-east India and Adivasi society.

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