Amidst reports of several European countries having turned the corner, WHO has cautioned against exuberance as the world is still in the midst of the first wave of covid19 pandemic. History of pandemics suggests that they go through at least 3 waves before ending. History also suggests that in the second wave, the contagion is more virulent. Hence, we can lose patience or underestimate the killing capacity of covid19 pandemic only at our own peril. All countries, including India -developed, developing and underdeveloped are at serious risk in view of the dangerous haste being demonstrated to overlook the statistics and dynamics of COVID19 -Corona Virus Disease-2019.

INDIA IS STEADILY CLIMBING THE CHART OF WORST AFFECTED COUNTRIES, with amongst the highest daily increase of positive case behind USA and Russia.

The recent Delhi High Court order in the case of Covid19-dedicated cremation facilities in Delhi and the mortuary in Lok Nayak Hospital, Delhi, overwhelmed by dead bodies should serve as an eye-opener.

Novel Coronavirus has some very peculiar traits which set it aside from other infections that have affected populations in the past of two decades. While Coronavirus is not as deadly as Ebola, it is highly infectious, like common flu and has a significant rate of deaths. Ergo, by the time the pandemic ends the death toll can be quite devastating.

Enough is not known about the Coronavirus, which is posing significant challenges in the efforts to develop a successful vaccine. For instance, it affects multiple organs and not just lungs, as it was initially believed. Furthermore, it has post-recovery symptoms such as Kawasaki disease, especially pernicious for children. There isn’t enough evidence gathered so far by medical doctors or laboratory researchers whether recovered patients develop strong enough antibodies to protect them from future infections.

India is creating a false dichotomy between lockdown and opening up when the real issue is how to find the best way to open areas in the country and sectors in the economy that doesn’t inflame the contagion.

Even though there are over a hundred active programs for developing a vaccine, yet a successful vaccine is still more than a year away. Consequently, even for those who are in a hurry to go to work for economic or other reasons, lockdown, physical distancing, use of masks and personal hygiene seem to be the best protection. Especially so for countries such as India that have very limited capacity for testing and tracing.

Hasty opening up is bound to increase the rate of infections, as has been reported in Brazil, USA and other countries. A similar jump is also being observed in India where the number of people under quarantine has doubled since opening up and there has been a geographical spread of the disease.

The upshot of India’s policy level sleight of hand is that policies were adopted that have fed the contagion. For instance, allowing opening up of even nonessential activities in the five worst-hit states. Particularly exasperating was the arm twisting of states to permit air traffic.

India is yet to hit the peak, and if a course correction is not done we are set to hit the peak in July, when floods will inundate a large part of the country, rendering physical distancing and other preventive measures difficult to adhere to. It is reasonable, therefore, to speculate that the first wave of the contagion will carry till September.

Such a prolonging of the first wave will be particularly debilitating in the efforts to curb the contagion as it will not only overwhelm the already fragile medical capacity but also erode it–Prolonged wave one would exhaust the frontline of covid19 warriors and also infect them.

The fruition of this possibility will be ominous for India where the flu and pneumonia season begins in winter i.e. from October to February. In other words, the first wave might dovetail into the second wave even as our medical facilities would be fraying rapidly.

It is alarming therefore that instead of formulating policies counter to the crisis that is threatening to engulf us the government of India is still taking recourse to tactics to deflect public scrutiny. They are creating a false dichotomy between lockdown and opening up when the real issue is how to find the best way to open areas in the country and sectors in the economy that doesn’t inflame the contagion.

The upshot of this policy level sleight of hand is that policies were adopted that have fed the contagion. For instance, allowing opening up of even nonessential activities in the five worst-hit states. Particularly exasperating was the arm twisting of states to permit air traffic. Air travel is a luxury and it’s opening up could have been dispensed with. Instead, airlines were permitted to book to full capacity in direct violation of the norms of physical distancing. Is it fortuitous then that there are reports of the contagion spreading through the restarted air traffic?

Indian policymakers need to do a serious rethink before it is too late.

Kumar Sanjay Singh is Associate Professor in the Department of History at the Swami Shraddhanand College, University of Delhi with specialisation in Mutations in Indian State formation post-1947, Extraordinary laws especially Internal Security Legislations and Human Rights with special focus on North-east India and Adivasi society.

Title Photo courtesy: healthline.com