While there is an alarming increase in the number of COVID19 infections, India is opening up in a hurry that is not explainable, except that the government now wants the ‘problem of Coronavirus and the attending problems of the country to be out and done with’ notwithstanding the short term and long term consequences. Political commentator Kumar Sanjay Singh warns that this can have disastrous consequences as seen in Sweden. He argues that the situation can be saved by emulating the example of Greece.

INDIA IS OPENING UP INSPITE OF ALARMING ACCELERATION in the number of covid19 infections. The number of deaths in the country has also accelerated, without any appropriate response or concern by any government or medical authority.

The daily increase in the number of new cases underscores that government relaxations notwithstanding, the contagion is unrelenting. It would be advisable, therefore to follow restraint and physical distancing. All nonessential activities such as dining out must be avoided.

Europe which, before being replaced by USA, was a global hotspot throws a spotlight on the fate that awaits us, depending on the course of action to be adopted by our policy formulators.

Sample the diverse alternatives presented by Sweden and Greece situations.

Sweden, an advocate of the concept of herd immunity, does not follow social distancing, lockdown etc., and now has the highest death rates in Europe.  In contrast, Greece, which is amongst the poorest countries of Europe, has kept both the rate of infections and deaths in check through lockdown (implemented as early as February), physical distancing, and a judicious program of testing and tracing. The collaboration between the medical fraternity and the government has been immaculate and except in the refugee areas, the country has kept the deaths at the bare minimum.

In countries such as India where per capita availability of doctors and hospital beds are very low, hasty and haphazard opening up may have disastrous consequences, as even a slight spike in the number of hospitalizations will overwhelm the medical facilities.

In the Greek example, financial sacrifice has been accepted but the human sacrifice has been curtailed. In a way, this makes economic sense, since, in the current contagion-driven recession, the economic crisis has been triggered by a public health crisis. Ergo, economic success or failure depends on the success or failure of governmental policies on public health.

It seems that given the peculiarity and causation of the contagion-driven recession advice of medical experts would provide the bulwark for economic recovery.

This breeds misgivings on the sagacity of government’s decision to open nonessential services even in the red zones. Medical experts have repeatedly underscored the potential of infections while dining in restaurants, visiting salons, etc. It is alarming that the hoteliers’ lobby is pursuing zealously to open their eateries.

The reservation that comes to mind after reading this is that it leans heavily on the concept of herd immunity. This has failed in the case of covid19 where exposure to the virus leads to infections and in cases hospitalization and death. High death rates in Sweden demonstrates this.

In countries such as India where per capita availability of doctors and hospital beds are very low, hasty and haphazard opening up may have disastrous consequences, as even a slight spike in the number of hospitalizations will overwhelm the medical facilities. In fact, this is already happening but now is being drowned in the hullaballoo of self-reliance and exaggerated claims of relief efforts and data fudging of the number of covid19 related deaths.

What could make the matters worse is the inability (due to poverty, etc.) of a large section of our population to observe physical distancing and use of face masks and other safety norms! The Greeks and the Taiwanese demonstrated remarkable self-restraint and self-imposed discipline and accepting of norms announced by governmental and medical authorities.

The painful, haphazard, unregulated, merciless movement of the poor migrant population from one part of nouveau-riche India to their own India -the India of their home and hearth is likely to add further fuel to the fire as no precautions or systems have in place to test the estimated 4 million migrant workers.

The painful, haphazard, unregulated, merciless movement of the poor migrant population from one part of nouveau-riche India to their own India -the India of their home and hearth is likely to add further fuel to the fire as no precautions or systems have in place to test the estimated 4 million migrant workers.

The wages of this ill-advised policy are already being manifest. Since opening up,  the number of cases in districts and states that hitherto had very few or no cases is now registering positive cases. An alarming development that has ominous portents for India and Indians.