Writing on the Wall: India is likely to overtake Russia in another 10 days or so in the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. India’s trajectory of numbers is simply staggering. India reached from 1 to 100,000 in 139 days, from 100,000 to 200,000 in 16 days, from 200,000 to 300,000 in 11 days and from 300,000 to 400,000 in 9 days. The numbers are ominous and so is the trend. The writing is one the wall and only the purblind can miss it.  Citing the report, WSN editor Jagmohan Singh adds that the recent permission by India to pharmaceutical giant Glenmark to market Favipiravir as COVID-19 treatment, with a written consent form, only adds to the confusion and fears of a universal drug trial with Indians as guinea pigs.

AS WE TALK COVID-19 STATISTICS, REPUTED MEDICAL JOURNAL THE LANCET in its latest study released on 15 June 2020 confirms that one in every five inhabitants of planet earth is susceptible to contracting this infection, especially those who have a history of other ailments.

The latest research entitled, “Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study” claims, “About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age.”

It adds the rider, “Our estimates are uncertain and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds.”

The Lancet -with a standing of two centuries, says, “We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older).”

It further adds, “We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease.”

Lancet has published 62 studies between Feb 15 and March 20, 2020. The present study says, “We estimated that 349 million (UI 186–787) people—4% (3–9) of the global population—are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected. The proportion of individuals at high risk in each age group ranged from approximately one in every 900 individuals younger than 20 years to one in every five individuals aged 70 years or older.”

For the doubting Thomases, what is Lancet and what does it stand for? The Lancet founded by Thomas Wakley, in its own words has since 1823, “strived to make science widely available so that medicine can serve, and transform society, and positively impact the lives of people.” Undoubtedly, “Over the past two centuries, The Lancet has sought to address urgent topics in our society, initiate debate, put science into context, and influence decision-makers around the world.”

The Lancet retains at its core the belief that medicine must serve society, that knowledge must transform society, that the best science must lead to better lives. The Lancet is focussed to maintain the highest standards for medical science, improve human lives is the only end goal and it is focussed to increase the social impact of science.

The present study of Lancet humbly concludes, “With physical distancing measures of varying intensity in place worldwide, and substantial uncertainty about the transmissibility of the virus in different contexts, the results of any attempt to calculate the number of individuals that will eventually be infected in different countries will be highly uncertain. Nonetheless, we hope our estimates will provide a useful starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global COVID-19 pandemic unfolds”

The Lancet proclaims that it sets agendas, creates context and informs leaders. Is anyone in India reading and listening to the warnings?