Se­nior jour­nal­ist and tele­vi­sion an­chor SP Singh, well known to the Pun­jabi read­ers for his weekly col­umn, Likhtum BaDaleel in Pun­jabi Tri­bune, re­cently wrote about the pan­demic-im­pacted po­lit­i­cal sce­nario in In­dia, as seen through the prism of Trump’s Amer­ica. WSN asked him to trans­late the piece for us, but since that ar­ti­cle was writ­ten pri­mar­ily for the Pun­jabi read­ing pub­lic, he has in­stead dwelled and ex­panded upon that line in this Eng­lish it­er­a­tion that goes even be­yond his pri­mary piece. The Pun­jabi ver­sion can be ac­cessed here.

THE MOST HOPE­FUL AMONG IN­DI­A’S OP­PO­SI­TION is now bank­ing on the pan­demic. Such has been the mis­man­age­ment on the part of the Modi gov­ern­ment that his crit­ics now ex­pect the back­lash at the hus­tings. In fact, that’s their only hope.

Gored by death, ap­a­thy and the hor­ri­ble scenes of dead bod­ies in rivers; dev­as­tated by the loss of jobs, sus­te­nance and op­por­tu­ni­ties; and an­gry at the de­nial of ba­sic health fa­cil­i­ties, peo­ple are ex­pected to lash out at the face of the rul­ing es­tab­lish­ment – Naren­dra Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath and their BJP.

The hope is that this tri­umvi­rate and its bed­fel­lows will not be able to stave off the waves of rage and anger when peo­ple come stomp­ing to the polling booths and vote with their heels. At least those who are alive then.

In a clas­si­cally func­tion­ing elec­toral democ­racy, this could have been the likely sce­nario. A de­ci­sively in­ept ad­min­is­tra­tion is voted out even when the op­po­si­tion does not hold a bet­ter promise. Af­ter all, the prin­ci­ple of not re­ward­ing the same bull­shit re­mains the bul­wark of bal­lot­ting; so even new bull­shit is ac­cepted.

Apart from the ubiq­ui­tous truth that the op­po­si­tion has not cov­ered it­self with glory as the pan­demic scorched through our land, com­mu­ni­ties, fam­i­lies, econ­omy and lives, it also is a mis­cal­cu­la­tion on the part of the op­po­si­tion to de­pend­ing on the pan­demic’s fe­roc­ity to bring it to power, or at least, rel­e­vance.

When the time comes for peo­ple –masked or not, vac­ci­nated or not, hav­ing suf­fered Covid or not, hav­ing lost loved ones or not, hav­ing found a hos­pi­tal bed or not, hav­ing re­ceived oxy­gen or not, hav­ing found a spot to cre­mate their dead beloved or not –to press that but­ton on the EVM, there will be con­sid­er­a­tions other than the pan­demic, too.

When the time comes for peo­ple –masked or not, vac­ci­nated or not, hav­ing suf­fered Covid or not, hav­ing lost loved ones or not, hav­ing found a hos­pi­tal bed or not, hav­ing re­ceived oxy­gen or not, hav­ing found a spot to cre­mate their dead beloved or not –to press that but­ton on the EVM, there will be con­sid­er­a­tions other than the pan­demic, too.

It sounds atro­cious at this stage to say that –al­most pre­pos­ter­ous, even –that a voter will con­sider is­sues other than the death of her par­ent or child or friend or neigh­bour or lover while cast­ing her vote and de­cid­ing who next she puts in charge of the health­care sys­tem and our lives, but pol­i­tics is a slip­pery an­i­mal.

Of course, not all vot­ers are li­able to slip on that tricky turf. Peo­ple do con­sider core is­sues of health, ed­u­ca­tion, em­ploy­ment, op­por­tu­ni­ties, peas­antry, ur­ban­i­sa­tion, trade, com­merce, se­cu­rity and har­mony while vot­ing for a po­lit­i­cal party but then po­lit­i­cal par­ties in a sys­tem of ad­ver­sar­ial elec­tion­eer­ing do not work to­wards con­vinc­ing the en­tire col­lec­tive of vot­ers.

All po­lit­i­cal par­ties se­lect their vot­ers. It is only the vot­ers’ fan­tasy that they se­lect their party. The par­ties iden­tify blocks and then work to ca­jole them, curry favours with them, prod them, or mould them to align them with their own think­ing or strate­gic line of ac­tion.  A Don­ald Trump does not seek the votes of groups of young girls hail­ing Nancy Pelosi as their hero; he seeks out young Amer­i­cans an­gry with the sys­tem which they be­lieve has out­sourced so many jobs that there are none left for them. The anti-war demon­stra­tors fall in one camp, those de­fend­ing the Sec­ond Amend­ment and the right to bear arms fall in the other. These camps are clearly iden­ti­fied and par­ties guard them with some de­lib­er­ate ef­fort.

So, will Modi and com­pany be able to guard their camp in spite of the pan­demic?

Elec­toral out­comes are now de­cided by sliv­ers of these vote banks; that’s what ex­plains the cru­cial need for a genre of pol­i­tics called Prashant Kishore and his lap­top wield­ing ready-to-rent data-crunch­ing mer­ce­nar­ies.

There is a strong un­bro­ken un­der­cur­rent from pre-Covid years that con­tin­ues to un­der­gird the nar­ra­tive that Modi and his gov­ern­ment have been do­ing all they could to fight this pan­demic, and there is no one else who has proven that he or she could have done bet­ter than what the Cen­tre did. The rest of the blame should go to the pan­demic.

This is a strong Rightwing, Hin­dutva vote bank, some­times only Rightwing, but of­ten both.

Let us look at the mother of all democ­ra­cies, the United States of Amer­ica, for some real-time ed­u­ca­tion in this re­spect. While the bet­ter-known nar­ra­tive is that Don­ald Trump was booted out of the White House, apart from so­cial me­dia han­dles, the ac­tual re­al­ity of Amer­i­can pol­i­tics is that Trump con­tin­ues to be at the front, cen­tre, left and right of the US po­lit­i­cal scene.

Liz Ch­eney was re­moved from her lead­er­ship po­si­tion for her re­fusal to stay quiet about Trump’s elec­tion lies. She has been cry­ing her­self hoarse, hark­ing the Re­pub­li­can Party to be “the party of truth.”

Re­pub­li­can law­mak­ers have re­cently un­der­scored the grip that the per­ceiv­ably in­creas­ingly un­pop­u­lar Trump re­tains on their ranks. Saner Re­pub­li­cans stand de­mor­al­ized, the party finds it­self un­able to move on from his tenure; and a dis­play of loy­alty to Trump and his thought process seems to be the ticket to sur­vival even when we think Joe Biden’s vic­tory brought back an era of de­cency and so­bri­ety in pol­i­tics.

If the Re­pub­li­can Party is to­day un­able to re­solve the co­nun­drum of how to ac­com­mo­date a for­mer pres­i­dent who is beloved by its core vot­ers even when the larger pub­lic is more de­tested than ever with the same leader, how do you think the sce­nario will play out in In­dia once the pic­tures of float­ing bod­ies in the Ganges no more find space in news­pa­pers or on-screen?

Once those im­ages fade into mem­ory, there will be new im­ages, new Mann Ki Baat, new schemes, new ral­lies, new shenani­gans, new cam­paigns of ret­ri­bu­tion against those who were only pulling the prime min­is­ter’s leg when he was fight­ing the Covid with a bro­ken health­care sys­tem that was the legacy of Nehru and his ilk.

Dick Ch­eney was one of the most pow­er­ful vice pres­i­dents in the his­tory of the United States. His fam­ily is po­lit­i­cal roy­alty in Wyoming. His daugh­ter, Liz Ch­eney in­her­ited that legacy and was the num­ber three leader of her party in the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives till a few days back, but ever since she voted against Trump in the sec­ond im­peach­ment trial ear­lier this year, Trump’s more stri­dent al­lies had been bay­ing for her head. They fi­nally have it.

Nearer home, the hold and sway that the likes of Naren­dra Modi, Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath en­joy over the party make even party pres­i­dents the likes of JP Nadda seem like pup­pets. The en­tire saner el­e­ment in the party is not ef­fec­tive enough to deny a ticket to a Pragya Thakur. The sheer weight of this core voter base makes it im­pos­si­ble for the saner el­e­ments to stop re­spon­si­ble mem­bers of par­lia­ment and fed­eral min­is­ters from de­liv­er­ing lec­tures on the sci­en­tific ben­e­fits of slurp­ing over a glug of cow urine.

Since Trump’s de­feat, po­lit­i­cal pun­dits have cal­cu­lated that the core vote base re­mained loyal to Trump. The House goes for elec­tions next year, as will one-third of the Sen­ate seats.

Hope­ful Re­pub­li­cans know that their only chance of man­ag­ing enough votes from among the Re­pub­li­cans in the pri­maries is to seek a vote of ap­proval from Trump. So, the party, in­stead of break­ing away from Trump, has tied it­self even more strongly with him and his nar­ra­tive.

Even af­ter Biden’s first-100-day mark, Trump con­tin­ues to pre­sent Re­pub­li­cans with their most vex­ing prob­lem. They may not like what he stands for, but they can­not by­pass the thick sliver of vot­ers that have stayed loyal to him. So they have to ac­com­mo­date him. The mo­ment they do that, Trump owns them.

Liz Ch­eney was re­moved from her lead­er­ship po­si­tion for her re­fusal to stay quiet about Trump’s elec­tion lies. She has been cry­ing her­self hoarse, hark­ing the Re­pub­li­can Party to be “the party of truth.”

The episode un­der­lines the core voter base’s in­tol­er­ance for dis­sent and the power of this sliver of vot­ers that vows unswerv­ing fealty to the for­mer pres­i­dent.

Nearer home, the hold and sway that the likes of Naren­dra Modi, Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath en­joy over the party make even party pres­i­dents the likes of JP Nadda seem like pup­pets. The en­tire saner el­e­ment in the party is not ef­fec­tive enough to deny a ticket to a Pragya Thakur. The sheer weight of this core voter base makes it im­pos­si­ble for the saner el­e­ments to stop re­spon­si­ble mem­bers of par­lia­ment and fed­eral min­is­ters from de­liv­er­ing lec­tures on the sci­en­tific ben­e­fits of slurp­ing over a glug of cow urine.

Once those im­ages fade into mem­ory, there will be new im­ages, new Mann Ki Baat, new schemes, new ral­lies, new shenani­gans, new cam­paigns of ret­ri­bu­tion against those who were only pulling the prime min­is­ter’s leg when he was fight­ing the Covid with a bro­ken health­care sys­tem that was the legacy of Nehru and his ilk.

You think this sliver of vot­ers is go­ing to go any­where else when it comes to vot­ing for Modi, dead bod­ies afloat in the Ganges or not?

The prob­lem is that In­di­a’s Op­po­si­tion is choos­ing its own vot­ing blocks care­fully, de­lib­er­ately, and in a cow­ardly man­ner. It wants to crit­i­cise Modi but only enough so that it does not end up ril­ing the Hin­dutva sliver. It wants to ques­tion Mod­i’s poor pan­demic man­age­ment with­out, at the same time, ques­tion­ing his hard na­tion­al­ism that has de­stroyed the coun­try’s com­mu­nal fab­ric. It wants its lead­ers to talk about Oxy­gen and ven­ti­la­tors, but not mix up that crit­i­cism with the rul­ing par­ty’s overt and covert sup­port to vig­i­lante groups lynch­ing Mus­lims.

So you can talk about one kind of con­struc­tion and ques­tion its tim­ing – the Cen­tral Vista in New Delhi – but not the con­struc­tion and tim­ing of the Ram Tem­ple in Ay­o­d­hya.

The Con­gress party failed to put its own house in or­der. It has done every­thing to prove that Modi-Amit Shah-and every­body else is seen as a pur­veyor of the truth when they call it the party of one fam­ily. Rahul Gandhi and his ilk could not de­moc­ra­tise the party enough, so you can­not throw it in the BJP’s face and claim higher moral ground when it comes to in­tra-party democ­racy.

It only strength­ens Mod­i’s and Amit Shah’s hold over BJP. While the Con­gress party still has a sit­u­a­tion where 23 can sign a pe­ti­tion to the party pres­i­dent, the BJP can­not have a sin­gle Liz Ch­eney in its ranks.

The hold is com­plete and the pan­demic has left Modi-Shah-Yogi lord­ship over the party in­tact – the pan­demic dead stats notwith­stand­ing. Add to it the strong bond of fealty among the Hin­dutva brigades and you get a clear pic­ture of what can hap­pen if a Liz Ch­eney raises her head. Mul­ti­ply that with the sheer in­ef­fec­tive­ness of the op­po­si­tion’s nar­ra­tive and the lead­ers of straw mas­querad­ing as state satraps. Tem­per it with the ut­terly hol­lowed out in­sti­tu­tional mech­a­nisms and sys­tem of checks and bal­ances. Gar­nish it with the proven ob­se­quious­ness of in­stru­ments like CBI, ED, IT, DRI and what not. You think some dead float­ing and bloat­ing in the wa­ters of the Ganges will change the equa­tion?

THIS IS THE PROB­LEM WITH IN­DI­A’S OP­PO­SI­TION                 The prob­lem is that In­di­a’s Op­po­si­tion is choos­ing its own vot­ing blocks care­fully, de­lib­er­ately, and in a cow­ardly man­ner. It wants to crit­i­cise Modi but only enough so that it does not end up ril­ing the Hin­dutva sliver. It wants to ques­tion Mod­i’s poor pan­demic man­age­ment with­out, at the same time, ques­tion­ing his hard na­tion­al­ism that has de­stroyed the coun­try’s com­mu­nal fab­ric. It wants its lead­ers to talk about Oxy­gen and ven­ti­la­tors, but not mix up that crit­i­cism with the rul­ing par­ty’s overt and covert sup­port to vig­i­lante groups lynch­ing Mus­lims

Any change can hap­pen when those who be­lieve in pol­i­tics go back to rais­ing real po­lit­i­cal ques­tions. The larger un­signed tac­ti­cal un­der­stand­ing among the en­tire In­dian po­lit­i­cal elite to no more ask Modi and his men the hard ques­tions about Gu­jarat 2002 has to be tossed aside. Par­ties like Con­gress will have to con­tend with the cost-ben­e­fit analy­sis of their de­ci­sion to go for un­abated pri­vati­sa­tion of core sec­tors and their pur­suit of prag­matic com­mu­nal­ism and weak­en­ing of in­sti­tu­tions. We need to ask what have we done to the Mus­lims. The Con­gress will need to an­swer what it did to the Sikhs. It will have to travel back and ex­plain how, it, too, messed up in­sti­tu­tions and safe­guards.

Only and only this will en­able the Liz Ch­eneys within the BJP to raise their heads and ask some tough ques­tions of their lead­ers. Liz Ch­eney is a damn right-winger. She is not some­one who will stand up and be counted as a fighter on the cli­mate change front. Her peo­ple wor­ship Trump be­cause he stood for oil, min­er­als, min­ing, gas lobby. She does the same. Still, she gives hope that it is pos­si­ble to have right-wing pol­i­tics with­out stu­pid­ity, with­out be­ing a mo­ron. Our right-wing does not have space for a Sud­heen­dra Kulka­rni. It does not even ac­com­mo­date an Arun Shourie. In­stead, it makes space for a Pragya Thakur.

Our right-wing does not have space for a Sud­heen­dra Kulka­rni. It does not even ac­com­mo­date an Arun Shourie. In­stead, it makes space for a Pragya Thakur.

That ac­tu­ally re­duces the space for right-wing pol­i­tics with­out com­mu­nal­ism. The BJP, with its cur­rent lead­er­ship, can­not have a Thatcherite pol­i­tics or a Reagon’omics-in­formed idea of eco­nomic de­vel­op­ment with­out a di­men­sion of hard com­mu­nal­ism. That squeezes out some of the bright­est right-wingers from its po­lit­i­cal turf. It even taints an E Sreed­ha­ran.

The onus of set­ting a new tra­di­tion be­falls the Op­po­si­tion. Id­iocy needs san­ity for jux­ta­po­si­tion, but as of now, that sup­ply line is also bro­ken. The dead are swim­ming in an ocean of ap­a­thy, but ask the vul­tures feed­ing on hu­man flesh, and they will thank all as a so­ci­ety for their meal.

So do not bet on what the pan­demic will do next time the EVMs beep. In­dian po­lit­i­cal scene re­mains shrill, and melody is still far away. The dead are lis­ten­ing to mu­sic our pol­i­tics com­posed, and we all struck the wrong chords.