Being the geostrategic link to East Asia, Central Asia and South Asia, events in Afghanistan usually have ramifications that go much beyond its political boundaries. Afghanistan has often been the site of superpower rivalry as control over Afghanistan provides access to West Asia, Central Asia and South Asia. The current status of Afghanistan, with the Taliban takeover, will have serious ramifications in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, argues political analyst Kumar Sanjay Singh.

RETAINING HOLD OVER AFGHANISTAN OFTEN PROVES MORE DIFFICULT  than invading it. It has proven to be the graveyard of empires. In recent history, two formidable superpowers had to withdraw in disgrace -first the USSR and now the USA. The US failed to secure a puppet and stable regime in Afghanistan. Its departure brought a twenty years-long effort, that exacted a serious price in lives and resources, to nought.

Its hasty departure exposed the fragility of the US experiment of political engineering in Afghanistan. Taliban is once again at the helm of Afghanistan politics. However, the dramatic pictures of the Taliban takeover should not mislead us to equate Taliban I and II.

Taliban 2 is better equipped than Taliban 1. Militarily it now controls a vast trove of sophisticated US weaponry. For instance, they have a large number of sophisticated black hawk helicopters, even more than some strategic US allies such as Australia.

The two most powerful nations of the world -the USA and China are tacitly backing the Taliban takeover.

The two most powerful nations of the world -the USA and China are tacitly backing the Taliban takeover. This understanding began when Trump opened negotiations with the Taliban to facilitate US withdrawal from Afghanistan. With Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw, the possibility of Taliban takeover became a reality.

China wishes to use the exit of the US to ex­pand its in­flu­ence in Afghanistan to achieve two strate­gic tar­gets. First, to ex­tend the belt and road ini­tia­tive in Afghanistan that will pro­vide, for China, a land route to West Asia. Second, China seeks to establish a stable regime, with whom it can do business. To ensure the stability or the post-US political regime and to stake the sit­u­a­tion fur­ther in its favour, China is op­er­at­ing through a troika of Rus­sia, Pak­istan and Iran. Turkey may also soon be­come a part of this group.

The ascendency of the Taliban will adversely impact three nations.

The United States of America abandoned the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Afghanistan is the repetition of this trait.

The United States of America, because it is now viewed as a fickle ally that sacrifices its friends to further its short-term gains. They abandoned the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Afghanistan is the repetition of this trait. The long term fallout of this would be the erosion of US presence in West Asia that will benefit Russia, China and Iran.

India has suffered a serious setback in its diplomatic strategy in Afghanistan and West Asia. With the Taliban takeover, its strategy to prop an anti-Pakistan regime in Afghanistan is ruined. Its investments in Chabhar port is reduced to nothing. And finally, its attempt to use the Saudi-led Arab league to consolidate its presence in West Asia is now at crossroads. Indian policy towards Saudi was a mimicry of the US policy and will not withstand the decline of the US power in West Asia. Saudi Arabia and UAE have already opened back-channel diplomacy with Iran.

The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan will have detrimental consequences for Indian security operations in Kashmir.

Further, the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan will have detrimental consequences for Indian security operations in Kashmir.

The Taliban takeover will erode the rights regime in Afghanistan and will witness overt and covert measures to erode the rights of religious and ethnic minorities and also of women and children.

All of this should alert us to the pernicious consequences of regimes that espouse a majoritarian fascist ideology.