Cat­a­clysms in­evitably trans­form na­tional and in­ter­na­tional po­lit­i­cal struc­tures. The case in point is the black death (14th-17th cen­turies) and the two world wars. This is the first part of a two-part analy­sis of the po­ten­tial trans­for­ma­tions of in­ter­na­tional and na­tional or­der.  Delhi-based po­lit­i­cal com­men­ta­tor and an­a­lyst Ku­mar San­jay Singh fo­cuses on the pos­si­bil­i­ties of covid19 im­pelled trans­for­ma­tions of the in­ter­na­tional or­der.

WHILE RE­DUC­TION OF US FOOT­PRINT IN in­ter­na­tional po­lit­i­cal and eco­nomic in­sti­tu­tions un­der Trump-dic­tated iso­la­tion­ism pre­dates covid19 pan­demic, de­fi­ance of US sanc­tions by al­lies is a di­rect out­come of the con­ta­gion-dri­ven re­al­ity of self-preser­va­tion.

US-im­posed sanc­tions notwith­stand­ing, Latin Amer­i­can and Eu­ro­pean al­lies sought Cuban med­ical as­sis­tance. Sim­i­larly im­per­a­tive of con­tain­ing con­ta­gion in Iran from spread­ing be­yond its bor­ders led to sub­stan­tial aid from the EU and UK. In a rare re­buff, west­ern al­lies have been re­luc­tant to ac­cept US as­ser­tions on Chi­nese con­spir­acy be­hind the spread of covid19 on the ground of in­ad­e­quate ev­i­dence.

Con­ta­gion-im­pelled race for vac­cine sug­gests the emer­gence of three sig­nif­i­cant blocs:

1. US which is seek­ing to pur­sue an iso­la­tion­ist path. As per a re­port in NYT, there’s con­sid­er­able ap­pre­hen­sion amongst it’s NATO al­lies that in or­der to bol­ster its vac­cine re­search ca­pa­bil­ity, US may poach on Eu­ro­pean phar­ma­ceu­ti­cal com­pa­nies.

2. The China-dri­ven block which in­cludes Rus­sia, Pak­istan and Iran. In ad­di­tion, this block has a sig­nif­i­cant med­ical tie-up with Cuba and Aus­tralia.

3. The ini­tia­tive led by the Eu­ro­pean Union, which has the sup­port of Canada and Mex­ico. Even, UK has stakes in this ini­tia­tive.

Re­la­tions be­tween the mem­ber coun­tries of each bloc and the po­ten­tial tie-ups be­tween the blocs will shape the emerg­ing mul­ti­po­lar world or­der. Sino-US ac­ri­mony over the source of con­ta­gion and for con­trol and dis­tri­b­u­tion of vac­cine makes any co­op­er­a­tion be­tween the two dif­fi­cult.

The sit­u­a­tion is much more fluid with re­spect to the EU. For one, sig­nif­i­cant asym­me­tries ex­ist be­tween the mem­ber coun­tries. Ger­many con­tin­ues to be a pow­er­house and in March 2020 it used it to its ad­van­tage by in­dulging in uni­lat­er­al­ism to se­cure first right over its med­ical sup­plies. So did France.

Re­la­tions be­tween the mem­ber coun­tries of each bloc and the po­ten­tial tie-ups be­tween the blocs will shape the emerg­ing mul­ti­po­lar world or­der. 

Fur­ther­more, the bloc pulls in op­po­site di­rec­tions on the ques­tion of a tie-up with the other two blocs. UK would pre­fer a trans-At­lantic tie-up. Ger­many, on the other hand, has deep de­pends on Rus­sia for gas/​en­ergy se­cu­rity. Given that the con­ta­gion-dri­ven fi­nan­cial crunch will hit re­new­able en­ergy sec­tor much harder than the more sta­ble car­bon en­ergy based sec­tor, Ger­man de­pen­dence on Rus­sia will only in­crease. Whether UK suc­cess­fully pulls Eu­rope with it or it breaks away from Eu­rope will de­pend on the tim­ing and suc­cess of its vac­cine pro­gram vis-a-vis the Eu­ro­pean pro­gram.

US dom­i­nance over the world or­der de­pends on how quickly it emerges from the con­ta­gion-dri­ven re­ces­sion. Ev­i­dence sug­gests that here it lags be­hind not only China but also Eu­rope.

Its suc­cess is also con­tin­gent on the suc­cess of its vac­cine pro­gram. It is al­ready ev­i­dent that West Asian power-houses are ex­press­ing will­ing­ness to bankroll any coun­try or bloc with a cred­i­ble vac­cine pro­gram. Un­der­stand­ably so, since en­ergy and fi­nance, the cor­ner­stones of West Asi­a’s wealth, have been the worst hit. US dom­i­nance in the post-Bret­ton woods world be­ing premised on its con­trol over pe­tro­leum-pro­duc­ing na­tions; the drift of West Asia would se­ri­ously com­pro­mise Amer­i­ca’s stature as a world power.

US dom­i­nance over the world or­der de­pends on how quickly it emerges from the con­ta­gion-dri­ven re­ces­sion.

Por­tents for the US are un­savoury if not omi­nous as the plum­met­ing oil prices and the re­sul­tant bank­rupt­cies in the US oil in­dus­try has soured US-Saudi re­la­tions. There are re­ports of the US shift­ing its bat­ter­ies of pa­triot de­fence sys­tems and air force cover from Saudi Ara­bia.

In this new dy­namic is it wise to stake all our eggs in the Amer­i­can bas­ket?

Ti­tle Photo: This is a photo by Jesco Den­zel for the Ger­man gov­ern­ment, show­ing a group of lead­ers at the Group of Seven sum­mit, in­clud­ing Ger­man Chan­cel­lor An­gela Merkel and Pres­i­dent Trump, in Canada on June 9, 2018. The photo of­fi­cially shared by the Ger­man Chan­cel­lor is symp­to­matic of the emerg­ing world po­lit­i­cal mul­ti­po­lar or­der.

Ku­mar San­jay Singh is As­so­ci­ate Pro­fes­sor in the De­part­ment of His­tory at the Swami Shrad­dhanand Col­lege, Uni­ver­sity of Delhi with spe­cial­i­sa­tion in Mu­ta­tions in In­dian State for­ma­tion post-1947, Ex­tra­or­di­nary laws es­pe­cially In­ter­nal Se­cu­rity Leg­is­la­tions and Hu­man Rights with spe­cial fo­cus on North­east In­dia and Adi­vasi so­ci­ety.