The transition from Lockdown to Unlock has been quite a political stuntmanship in India showing no respect for the actual pandemic situation, the warning of various international health authorities and monitoring agencies. It has now reached its nadir ignoring the writings on the wall, both in urban and rural India. Delhi University teacher and writer Kumar Sanjay Singh has been sharing cautionary notes through his columns in WSN about the deteriorating situation, the rising incidence of daily infections and death in India. The situation today has reached its nadir and the author cautions against UnlockIV.

Timing of UnlockIV, announced on 30 August and its tranche of measures to ease restrictions, commencing from 7th September 2020 in India couldn’t have been more ill-advised. The announcement has been made in the backdrop the gathering momentum of the spread of COVID19 infections and is thus a serious cause for concern.

For the past 25 days, India has had the largest number of daily infections internationally. It replaced Brazil to become the country with the second-largest number of active cases. The number of deaths related to COVID19 has been in excess 7000 deaths per week through the month of August 2020. On 31st August India overtook Mexico, to become the country with the third-highest number of deaths.

The weekly average of the number of positive cases continued to rise through August and since it takes a fortnight to break a trend; this upward trend will persist for a good part of September. At the current rate of acceleration of daily positive cases in India and the rate of deceleration in Brazil, India is poised to overtake Brazil in the total number of positive cases. By 5 September 2020, India will have largest number of confirmed cases, second only to the US.

The increasing trend of the first phase will continue unabated for at least the first three weeks of September.

Readings related to COVID19 infections are moving in the wrong direction. While the rate of recovery is tending to plateau out, positivity rate is on the rise. After hovering around 8, in fact, dipping to slightly below 8 for about a week in August, the positivity rate is once again on the rise. In the last days of August, it went above 8.

This will ensure a rising trend of the weekly average increase in new positive cases. This upward trend will be sustained because the rate of infections (the R factor) continues to be over one, which simply means that an infected individual is transmitting COVID19 to more than one person.

The increasing trend of the first phase will continue unabated for at least the first three weeks of September. There is a substantial increase not only in the eastern states, that are inundated with flood and rural areas with very weak health services but also in the metros such as Delhi, Bangaluru and Chennai, where the number of daily cases is once again on the rise.

This upward trend will be sustained because the rate of infections (the R factor) continues to be over one, which simply means that an infected individual is transmitting COVID19 to more than one person.

It seems that as a consequence of these developments the gap between the first wave and the second wave of COVID19 infections in India will be squeezed. With mid-October, the flu season in India commences, which is expected to cause the second wave. If the upward movement of the weekly average of new confirmed cases is not broken by the third week of September, I am afraid the first and the second wave in India will dovetail.

Title Photo Courtesy: Dainik Jagran