As on 5th May 2020, we crossed the dubious milestone of surpassing Italy, the famed covid19 hotspot, in the total number of confirmed cases. In a week’s time, India is poised to cross 3 lakh covid19 positive cases. Much is being made of the early imposition of lockdown in India. However, the facts belie such a claim. It needs to be recalled that the cases of covid19 infections were being reported in India as early as late January 2020. It’s time that the ad-hoc manner in which a serious public health crisis is being handled needs is brought under scrutiny. India needs to look at Vietnam with zero casualties and Greece which managed the pandemic well despite economic sluggishness, explains public commentator Kumar Sanjay Singh.

EMPHASIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF PLANNING, SUN TZU, in his celebrated book on strategy “The Art of War”, wrote: “Now, the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought” and “The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand.”

Judged from this yardstick our policy to control the contagion seems to fall in the second category. Lack of forethought in suddenly declaring a lockdown and its adverse impact on the migrant workers is receiving the deserved attention of the critiques.

International concern over the contagion was already palpable. Countries such as Vietnam and Greece, which are not exactly flush with resources, responded with alacrity. Restrictions on public movement, celebrations and norms of physical distancing were adopted in a planned and deliberate manner by February 2020. Thus, both the countries escaped the terrible fate of losing their citizens to the contagion.

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India lost precious time as between January to March government was busy organizing public events associated with President Trump’s welcome itinerary, operation Kamal in Madhya Pradesh and enforcing CAA which resulted in a conflagration.

With nearly 10000 new infections per day, the task of tracing and separating persons that are at risk is bound to become insurmountable. Experts are prognosticating that covid19 hotspots, i.e metropolitan centres such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Calcutta, and Ahmedabad, may have between 50 to 60 per cent of their population infected, in about six weeks time.

It was in this background of hyperactivity that the declaration of a lockdown in the last week of March 2020 manifested itself with a suddenness that took even state governments unaware and unprepared. Lack of planning disrupted not only the lives of ordinary citizens, workers and farmers but also the economy.

Absence of planning ensured that the economic hardships of the lockdown were reduced to nothing, as it failed to curb the contagion. Shortages of PPE, etc., even for the healthcare providers is symptomatic of the policy level inadequacies in handling a pandemic. There are reports in the media that the contracts for manufacturing PPE were made only after the announcement of a 21 days lockdown 01.

With such utter confusion, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the lockdown, while it flattened the GDP, failed in controlling the contagion. And now with the threat of urban starvation looming, the policy formulators are doing away with lockdown measures.

We are faced with the grim reality of relaxation of health safety measures at a time when the rate of spread of covid19 infections is still on the rise.

As per data released by the Indian Health Ministry, under the National Health Profile, on 19 June 2018, there is one government hospital bed per 1,844 population and one state-run hospital for every 55,591 population

As on 5th May 2020, we crossed the dubious milestone of surpassing Italy, the famed covid19 hotspot, in the total number of confirmed cases. In a week’s time, India is poised to cross 3 lakh covid19 positive cases.

With nearly 10000 new infections per day, the task of tracing and separating persons that are at risk is bound to become insurmountable. Experts are prognosticating that covid19 hotspots, i.e metropolitan centres such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Calcutta, and Ahmedabad, may have between 50 to 60 per cent of their population infected, in about six weeks time.

With access to hospitals becoming difficult even at less than 3 lakh infections, one can imagine the consequences of such an explosion in the rate of infections.

While it is correct that as of now the rate of mortality in India is low. However, it will be sobering to remember that access to hospitals and medical supervision has a significant impact on the rate of deaths. In India, there is one doctor for every 1,457 people as per the country’s current population estimate of 1.35 billion, which is lower than the World Health Organisation norm of 1:1000. As per data released by the Health Ministry, under the National Health Profile, on 19 June 2018, there is one government hospital bed per 1,844 population and one state-run hospital for every 55,591 population. To make the matters grimmer a disproportionate number of these are located in metropolitan and other urban centres.

A significant increase in the rate of infections, therefore, may also entail a significant increase in the death rate. A possibility dangerously close to fruition with the contagion now reaching the rural and tribal population. The road to achieving herd immunity may be littered with avoidable deaths.