Given the fact that the entire attention of the world is focussed on inventing or discovering a vaccine to save teeming millions in developed, developing and underdeveloped countries, civil rights activist and Delhi University Associate Professor Kumar Sanjay Singh forecasts that in the times to come it will be the COVID-19 vaccine power that will influence politics in the new normal that will emerge.

HOW A POST-COVID-19 WORLD WOULD BE LIKE is contingent on the discovery of a vaccine. News of Asia and Europe turning the corner notwithstanding, there’s an emerging consensus that there will be more phases of the COVID-19 pandemic.

News of the breakthrough in vaccines is therefore encouraging. However, this scramble for successful testing and production of a vaccine will also provide the beachhead for the emerging world order.

It can be reasonably speculated that control over production and distribution of vaccine will be the grand road to power.

Available capacities of vaccine production are a significant constraint, as currently less than 40% of the expected international demand can be met, even if the entire vaccine production capacities were to be diverted for production of COVID-19 vaccine.

It can be reasonably speculated that control over production and distribution of vaccine will be the grand road to power.

Paucity of supply will result in an intense power play that will be leveraged by the country controlling the vaccine. However, for converting old capacities to the production of a new vaccine and in order to scale up production, capital infusion is mandatory. If the inventing country has the necessary supply of capital, we may witness the emergence of a hyperpower.

If the inventing and investor countries are different, we will witness reworking of power blocks. Here, Trump enforced American isolationism to open up interesting scenarios.

Advantage for countries with available stock of ingestible capital is immense. COVID-19 has knocked international economy back by 50 to 60 years. Up to a one-fourth to one-third of the economic capability is lost.

The scramble for successful testing and production of a vaccine will also provide the beachhead for the emerging world order.

Reviving international economy will require a massive fiscal stimulus. Especially in a scenario where national governments will be compelled to invest a large part of the already depleted national resource towards public health and nutrition.

For a developing country such as India, it will be mandatory therefore that it doesn’t get carried away by the current rhetoric of international diplomacy. It will be wise to step back and latch on to those processes of emerging world order that will serve it best.